THE SHORT ANSWER
A problem may be worth investigating when a defined group experiences it with enough intensity, frequency or urgency to seek alternatives and change behaviour. Evidence of time, money, workarounds or risk already spent on the problem is usually more informative than broad enthusiasm for a proposed solution.
Judge the problem before the solution
| Dimension | Question | Possible evidence |
|---|---|---|
| Intensity | How costly or frustrating is it? | Consequences, complaints, lost time |
| Frequency | How often does it occur? | Repeated tasks or recurring incidents |
| Urgency | Why address it now? | Deadlines, risk or time-sensitive loss |
| Alternatives | What happens today? | Workarounds, competitors or doing nothing |
| Change | What would switching require? | Approval, migration, habit or trust |
| Payment | Who controls a budget? | Current spend or credible commitment |
Look for existing behaviour
People reveal priorities through what they repeatedly do: spreadsheets maintained by hand, specialists hired, delays tolerated, tools combined or budget allocated. A workaround does not prove a market, but it shows the problem has entered real behaviour.
Also investigate non-consumption. A person may care about the outcome yet reject every current option because it is expensive, complex, inaccessible or risky.
Evidence & context: U.S. Small Business Administration
Ask diagnostic questions without pitching
- Tell me about the last time this happened.
- What triggered it?
- What did you do next?
- What did that cost in time, money or risk?
- Who else was involved in the decision?
- What have you already tried?
- What makes the current approach acceptable or unacceptable?
Questions about a recent event tend to produce more concrete evidence than asking whether someone likes a future idea.
Define what evidence would change the next step
Write the problem as a falsifiable assumption: ‘We believe [customer] struggles to [job] when [context], producing [consequence].’ Then decide what observation would weaken that belief.
Use customer interviews and behavioural tests before choosing what to build. A problem can be real yet too infrequent, already solved well enough or held by a customer you cannot reach.
Evidence & context: Strategyzer
Sources & further reading
- Market research and competitive analysis
U.S. Small Business Administration. Official planning guidance on demand, market size, location, saturation and pricing. It is a research framework, not proof that a particular opportunity will succeed.
- Business testing: is your hypothesis really validated?
Strategyzer. Practitioner guidance distinguishing directional discovery evidence from stronger evidence of real-world behaviour. Its evidence scale is a method, not a guarantee.
- Designing strong experiments
Strategyzer. Practitioner guidance on explicit hypotheses, relevant participants and well-designed artefacts. Experiment quality and interpretation still depend on context.
Examples and exercises are illustrative unless attributed to a source. No independent expert review is claimed.
A correction, a counterexample or an experience worth sharing?
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